My World Cup Betting Picks for 23 June — Four Matches, Four Honest Verdicts

The last day of Matchday 2 is the kind of programme I enjoy most: two near-formalities, one straight shoot-out at the top of a group, and one match where the loser all but books their flight home. For NZ punters the timing is kind, too — these are early-morning-to-lunchtime kickoffs our side of the dateline, not the 3 a.m. grind we usually accept for a World Cup. Below are my four picks for the day, each with a confidence rating, every number stamped with when I pulled it, and my usual promise: these are positions I would take with my own money, not the hopeful ones.

Four finals to close Matchday 2 — and for once, all of them land at civilised hours for New Zealand viewers.

A quick note on the clock. Converting from US Eastern Time, the four kickoffs land at roughly 5:00 a.m. NZST (Portugal v Uzbekistan), 8:00 a.m. NZST (England v Ghana), 11:00 a.m. NZST (Panama v Croatia) and 2:00 p.m. NZST (Colombia v DR Congo) on Wednesday 24 June. That is a rare gift: you can watch the pick of the day with breakfast rather than setting a 3 a.m. alarm.

Portugal v Uzbekistan — Ronaldo Under Real Pressure

Portugal are heavy favourites at 1.18 (as of 23 June), with the draw out at 7.00 and an Uzbekistan win a distant 15.00. The story here is not whether Portugal win — it is whether Cristiano Ronaldo finally scores. At 41, in what is surely his last World Cup, he has gone a long run of major-tournament matches without a goal and was kept quiet in a 1–1 draw with DR Congo. Houston’s NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, so heat is not the excuse it might have been.

At 1.18 the match line holds no value for me — you are risking far too much for too little. The interesting market is Ronaldo or Portugal’s margin. I am not chasing a short team price; I would rather take a position on Portugal to win by two or more goals against a side playing in its first-ever World Cup. I rate Portugal 6/10 here: comfortable, but the goalless captain is a genuine wobble. My pick: Portugal -1.5 on the handicap. Confidence: 3 out of 5 stars.

England v Ghana — The Group L Decider

This is the match of the day, and I have given it a full breakdown elsewhere, but here is the short version. Both sides won their openers — England beat Croatia 4–2, Ghana edged Panama 1–0 — so the winner takes a commanding step toward the knockouts. England are 1.20 to win, the draw 6.50, Ghana 14.00 (as of 23 June).

Two things shape my read. First, Harry Kane equalled Gary Lineker’s England World Cup goals record against Croatia and can pass it here; he is in the form of his life by his coach’s own description. Second, Ghana have been gutted by injuries — Kudus, Salisu and Djiku are all out of the tournament, with Partey a game-time doubt. That is a midfield and defence missing its spine. England at 1.20 is too short to back straight, but the gap in available bodies pushes me toward goals. I rate England 8/10 to win and see this as a comfortable rather than nervy afternoon. My pick: over 2.5 total goals, and Kane anytime goalscorer as the supporting play. Confidence: 4 out of 5 stars.

Panama v Croatia — Elimination Maths

Both teams lost their openers and sit on zero points, which makes this the cruellest fixture on the card: the loser is all but eliminated. The market leans firmly to Croatia, priced around 1.55 to win away, with Panama out at 7.50 and the draw 4.10 (as of 23 June).

I have a small hesitation, and it is named Luka Modrić. At 40, in his fifth World Cup, he "cut a tired figure" late against England, and Croatia’s reported XI has wavered between a back three and a back four — a sign the staff are still solving their own problems. Even so, Croatia have the quality edge and the greater need converted into focus. Panama will scrap, but I cannot talk myself onto them at this level. I rate Croatia 7/10. My pick: Croatia to win at 1.55, kept to a modest stake given the formation uncertainty. Confidence: 3 out of 5 stars.

Colombia v DR Congo — Near Round-of-32 Decider

Colombia opened with a 3–1 win over Uzbekistan and lead Group K; DR Congo, at their first World Cup in over 50 years, drew 1–1 with Portugal. The winner in Guadalajara takes a near-decisive step toward the Round of 32. Colombia are 1.51 favourites, the draw 4.20, DR Congo 7.00 (as of 23 June).

I like Colombia here more than the price suggests is risky. They carry their full squad with no notable absentees reported, James Rodríguez is pulling the strings, and Luis Díaz gives them a genuine match-winner. DR Congo’s fairy tale is real but their ceiling in an open game against this attack is limited. Estadio Akron is open-air with light rain likely — conditions that can flatten a contest, which mildly favours the more patient side. I rate Colombia 7/10. My pick: Colombia to win at 1.51. Confidence: 4 out of 5 stars.

How I’d Stake the Day

If I were building one ticket, I would lean on the two four-star singles — England goals and Colombia — and treat Croatia and the Portugal handicap as smaller, optional add-ons rather than banker legs. All four prices above are NZD decimals at NZ-facing books such as BillyBets and LamaBet, pulled on 23 June; lines will drift before kickoff, so check before you commit. As always, the discipline is in the staking, not the selecting.

For the wider markets, see my live World Cup 2026 odds and group-stage betting guide. The Group L picture sits in the Group L guide, and England’s full profile in my England breakdown.