Can Anyone Stop France? — Rating the Field Chasing the Favourite
Available in USFrance are through to the semi-final, and the question everyone is now asking is the one I have been dodging for three weeks: can anybody actually stop them? Six games, six wins, no goals conceded in the knockouts, no extra time needed, and a march to a third consecutive World Cup semi-final. They are the only team through, the only side on a perfect record, and the clear outright favourite at around 2.46.
As a columnist, I owe you an honest answer rather than a hopeful one. So I have gone through the six sides still chasing France — Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina and Switzerland — and rated each one on the single question that matters: how likely are they to be the team that ends this run? The answer is uncomfortable for anyone hoping for a shock, but there are one or two names who genuinely worry me on France’s behalf.
France are the only side through to the semi-finals with a perfect record — but six teams are still chasing the clear favourite as the quarter-finals play out.
Why France Look This Good
Let me lay out the case, because the numbers are genuinely rare. France have won every match in 90 minutes. They have not conceded in the knockout rounds. Against Morocco they racked up a 21–4 shot count and a xG advantage that FOX and ESPN put around 3.0 to 0.1 — total control even in a game that was 0–0 for an hour. Mbappé is level at the top of the Golden Boot race on eight, Dembélé has five, and the supporting cast is deep enough that Deschamps rotates without dropping a level.
Most tellingly, France win even when they are not at their best. The Morocco game was tight for an hour, Mbappé missed a penalty, and it did not matter — because this side does not panic and does not leak. That combination of control and calm is what separates champions from contenders, and France have it in a way nobody else left does.
The market agrees. France shortened from around 2.80 before the quarter-final to 2.35–2.46 after it — the shortest they have been all tournament, and comfortably clear of the field. Spain are next at around 5.78, Argentina 5.43, England 6.41, then the longshots: Norway 15.89, Belgium 47.62, Switzerland 52.63.
The One Team That Truly Worries Me: Spain
If anyone ends this, I think it is Spain — and they might have to do it in the semi-final, because France meet the winner of Spain v Belgium next. Spain are the only side whose defensive record matches France’s. They have not conceded a single goal all tournament: five clean sheets in five, the first team ever with six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, and a goalkeeper in Unai Simón rewriting record books.
A France–Spain semi-final would be the two best defences at the tournament colliding, and it is the one matchup where I could genuinely see France being frustrated for 120 minutes and taken to a shootout. Spain first have to get past Belgium, which I expect them to do — I have broken down that tie in my Spain v Belgium prediction. If they do, France’s path suddenly looks a lot harder. I rate Spain the most likely side to stop France — 6/10 as the value alternative on the outright board.
The Rest of the Field, Rated
Argentina — 5/10. The holders, chasing back-to-back titles, with Messi on eight goals. On class and pedigree they are second only to France. But their knockout wins have been 3–2 and 3–2 with a leaky defence, and a France side that does not concede would likely punish that. A France–Argentina final would be box office, and I would fancy Argentina to score — but not to win it. They have to beat Switzerland first, covered in my Argentina v Switzerland prediction.
England — 4/10. Deep squad, Kane in the side, but a defensive crisis — Quansah suspended, Henderson out, Reece James a doubt — and they have looked leaky, conceding twice to ten-man Mexico. If they cannot keep Norway out, they will not keep France out. They are on the opposite side of the draw, so they would only meet France in the final.
Norway — 3/10, but the sentimental longshot. The story of the tournament, Haaland in the form of his life, and fresh from beating Brazil. At 15.89 they are the value dream ticket if you believe in fairytales. Realistically, one more upset gets them to a semi, and a second would be against the run of everything — but Haaland makes anything a live possibility.
Belgium — 2/10. Comeback pedigree and De Bruyne’s creativity, but a defence that concedes and a midfield gutted by Onana’s ACL. At 47.62 they are a longshot for a reason. They must beat Spain just to reach France.
Switzerland — 2/10. Wonderful defensive resilience and a penalty-shootout hero in Kobel, but they have never beaten Argentina and would need two enormous upsets to reach France. At 52.63 they are the rank outsider of the last six.
- France are the only team through to the semis, on a perfect 6/6 record with no goals conceded in the knockouts, and the clear favourite at ~2.46.
- Spain are the one side whose defence matches France’s — the most likely team to stop them, potentially in the semi-final.
- Argentina (5.43) are the class alternative but defensively shaky; England (6.41) are deep but injured.
- Norway (15.89) are the sentimental longshot on the back of Haaland’s form and the Brazil upset.
- My verdict: France are worthy favourites, but Spain at ~5.78 is the value play if you want to bet against them.
Where Is the Value?
I have said it in my recap and I will say it again: there is no value left in backing France at 2.46. The market has agreed on them, and fair prices on favourites do not drift once a side is into the semis unbeaten. If you want France, you are paying for safety, not value.
The value, if you want to bet against the favourite, is Spain at around 5.78. They are the one side with the defensive profile to take France to the wire, they are on the same side of the draw so the collision could come as early as the semi-final, and a shootout is a genuine equaliser between two sides that do not concede. I rate Spain the smart-money alternative — not likely, but the best-priced realistic threat.
My Verdict
Can anyone stop France? Probably not — I rate them the clear best side and worthy favourites, and I would not back against them lightly. But if one team can, it is Spain, and the draw means we might find out in the semi-final. My honest position: no value on France at 2.46, genuine value on Spain at 5.78 if you want a realistic longshot, and a small sentimental flutter on Norway at 15.89 for anyone who wants the fairytale.
For NZ punters, the discipline is to stop chasing the favourite and start pricing the threats. France are the safe bet, not the smart one. Track the full outright board on the World Cup 2026 odds page and the knockout picture on the predictions hub, and read my France recap for why the favourite looks this strong. NZ-facing books such as ZotaBet, LamaBet and RichRoyal price the outright market in NZD.
