France 2–0 Morocco — The Machine Makes It Six Out of Six

I have spent this whole tournament looking for the flaw in France, the loose thread you pull to talk yourself into a longer price somewhere else. After Thursday morning, I have stopped looking. France beat Morocco 2–0 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, reached a third consecutive World Cup semi-final, and did it the way they have done everything else at this tournament — without conceding, without needing extra time, and without ever really being in danger.

They are the only side left with a perfect record: six matches, six wins, all inside 90 minutes. Every other quarter-finalist has needed a comeback, a shootout, or a scare to get here. France have needed none of it. As a columnist who has spent three weeks hunting value against the favourite, I have to be honest with you: the value against France is getting harder to find, and Thursday is the reason why.

France reached a third straight World Cup semi-final with a 2–0 win over Morocco at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough — the match kicked off 7:00 am NZST on Thursday 10 July.

How the Match Was Won

For an hour, this was tighter than the scoreline suggests. Morocco — young, organised, and playing without fear — kept France in front of them and gave nothing easy away. Mbappé missed a first-half penalty, the kind of moment that on another day flips a knockout tie and hands the underdog a foothold. It did not, because France simply kept coming.

The breakthrough arrived on 60 minutes, and it was Mbappé who made amends for the penalty, finishing to settle nerves that had been building around a French side accustomed to leading early. Six minutes later Ousmane Dembélé added the second, his fifth of the tournament, and the contest was effectively over. France finished with a 21–4 shot count and a xG gulf that FOX and ESPN put at roughly 3.0 to 0.1 — numbers that describe a game controlled from first whistle to last, even when the score stayed at 0–0.

That is the thing about this France side that I keep coming back to. Even when they are not scoring, they are not in trouble. The clean sheet was their calling card long before Mbappé’s finish. Morocco, for all their spirit, managed four shots in 90 minutes against a defence that has now gone the entire tournament without looking rattled.

What It Means for the Outright Board

Here is where it matters for your betting. France went into the quarter-final around 2.80 to win the tournament. By Thursday evening they had been steamed into roughly 2.35–2.46 — the clear favourite, the shortest they have been since the market opened, and comfortably ahead of everyone else on the board.

For NZ punters, the read is straightforward and a little uncomfortable: the price that looked short a week ago now looks fair, and fair prices on favourites do not usually get longer once a side is into the semis with a perfect record. If you fancied France at 2.80 and did not take it, the market has moved without you. If you want them now at 2.46, you are paying for certainty, and I understand why you might.

My honest position: I am not chasing France at 2.46. Not because I think they will lose — I rate their chances of reaching the final at 8/10 — but because there is no value left in a price the whole market has already agreed on. The value in a France-dominated tournament is in the sides priced to lose to them, and in the goalscorer and margin markets around their matches, not in the outright.

The Mbappé Subplot You Should Be Tracking

Mbappé’s goal was his eighth of the tournament, and it pulled him level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race on eight each. It was also his 20th career World Cup goal, one behind Messi’s all-time record of 21. Two of the best two players of their generation, level at the top, both still alive, both with at least one more match to play.

That subplot is now one of the best markets at this World Cup, and I have written a full breakdown of where the value sits in my Golden Boot race piece. The short version: France reaching the semi-final guarantees Mbappé at least one more fixture, and Messi cannot match that unless Argentina also advance. For a punter, that scheduling edge matters more than the current price.

Morocco Go Out With Their Heads High

I want to give Morocco their due, because they deserve it. This was a Qatar-2022 semi-final rematch, and France won it again — but the Atlas Lions are a young side now, most of them with only 10 or 15 international caps apart from the 100-plus of Achraf Hakimi. They are coached by Mohamed Ouahbi, who replaced Walid Regragui back in March, and they leave the tournament as the last African team standing, eliminated by the eventual favourite.

Didier Deschamps was gracious afterwards, and the quotes tell you how France view this win. "It’s confirmation. There is a lot of pride in reaching a third consecutive World Cup semi-final," he said. On Morocco: "It’s a young team. Many of their players have only 10 or 15 international caps, apart from Achraf Hakimi, who has more than 100." That is not the language of a side that took the win for granted. It is the language of a side that knows how good it is and respects who it just beat.

What Comes Next

France now wait in Semi-final 1, to be played on Tuesday 14 July at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (7:00 am NZST on Wednesday 15 July). Their opponent will be the winner of Spain v Belgium, which kicks off later today. That is a mouth-watering draw either way: France against a Spain side that has not conceded a single goal all tournament, or France against a Belgium side with genuine attacking pedigree but a midfield gutted by Amadou Onana’s ACL injury.

My money says France would rather face Belgium than Spain, and I would too. Spain’s defensive record is the one thing at this tournament that matches France’s, and I have broken down that quarter-final in full in my Spain v Belgium prediction.

My Verdict

France 2–0 Morocco was not a classic, but it was a statement. This is the most complete side at the World Cup, and Thursday confirmed it. I rate France’s semi-final chances 8/10 and their title chances the best of any team left — but I am not backing them at 2.46, because the market has already priced in what I just watched.

For NZ punters, the smarter plays are around France rather than on them: Mbappé in the scorer markets, France match-margin and clean-sheet lines, and value on whichever side draws the short straw of facing them next. If you want the outright, take it with your eyes open — you are paying for the safest bet on the board, not a generous one.

You can track the full knockout picture on my World Cup 2026 predictions hub, and the standing winner market on the World Cup 2026 odds page. NZ-facing books such as Boomerang Bet, ZotaBet and LamaBet have the outright and scorer markets priced in NZD.