My Rated Picks for 3 July — The Final Round of 32 Day
Available in USThis is it — the last day of the Round of 32. Three ties today and then the knockout bracket is complete. For NZ punters, these are early-morning and lunchtime kickoffs on Friday the 4th our time, and they carry genuine bracket consequences: today’s winners fill the last two Round of 16 slots (M95 and M96). I have pulled the odds, checked the form, and rated each fixture on a confidence scale. Here is where I see value.
Three fixtures close the Round of 32 on 3 July — Australia v Egypt at 6:00 am NZST, Argentina v Cape Verde at 10:00 am, and Colombia v Ghana at 1:30 pm.
Australia v Egypt — 6:00 am NZST Friday 4 July
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (retractable roof, air-conditioned — the 36°C Texas heat outside is neutralised if the roof is closed, and it almost certainly will be)
Odds (as of 3 July): Australia 3.70 / Draw 2.90 / Egypt 2.50
This is the one with a direct NZ connection. Egypt were in Group G with the All Whites — we know them, we played them, we lost 1–3 to them. They finished second in the group on 5 points (1–1 Belgium, 3–1 New Zealand, 1–1 Iran) and are in the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in their history. This is not a side that has arrived by accident.
The headline question is Mohamed Salah. He is fit after a hamstring strain but the coach will not commit him to the starting XI. Opta’s model gives Egypt a 38.6% win probability and a 54% chance to advance (including extra time and penalties). Australia, by contrast, finished second in Group D but failed to score in their last two group games and carry the lowest expected-goals figure of any team that qualified from the top two (~2.1 xG across the group). Leckie and Italiano are both out for the tournament.
My pick: Egypt to advance. I rate this 7/10 on confidence. Egypt are the bookmaker’s to-advance favourite for a reason — Salah, even off the bench, changes the game. The 2.50 price to win in 90 minutes is fair; if you want better value, look at Egypt to qualify (which includes extra time and penalties) at the sportsbook. Australia’s attack has gone cold.
Ibrahim Hassan, Egypt’s team director, set the tone: "We have great ambitions, and we dream of continuing the journey and reaching the furthest point possible in the tournament, and we do not set a ceiling for our ambitions." That is not bluster — it is a side that believes it belongs here.
Argentina v Cape Verde — 10:00 am NZST Friday 4 July
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL (open-air canopy — high of 33°C, heat index up to 105°F, 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms; the canopy provides shade but not air conditioning)
Odds (as of 3 July): Argentina 1.18 / Draw 9.00 / Cape Verde 28.00
The numbers tell one story — Argentina at 1.18 is the shortest price on the entire slate. The narrative tells a better one. Cape Verde, population roughly 525,000, are the smallest nation by population ever to reach a men’s World Cup knockout stage. They are the first side to advance from a World Cup group without winning a single match (three draws: 0–0 Spain, draws with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia). Their 40-year-old goalkeeper Josimar "Vozinha" made seven saves in the 0–0 against Spain. This is one of the great underdog stories in World Cup history.
And yet Lionel Messi has scored six of Argentina’s eight goals at this tournament, co-leads the Golden Boot with Kylian Mbappé on 6, and Argentina have won all three group matches, conceding just once. They have won ten straight.
My pick: Argentina to win in 90 minutes, and over 2.5 goals. I rate this 9/10 on confidence — the quality gap is simply too wide. The 1.18 price on an Argentina win offers no standalone value whatsoever, but a goals line or an Argentina team-goals handicap is where the edge sits. Messi will want to pad his Golden Boot tally against the most generous opposition he will face this tournament.
Colombia v Ghana — 1:30 pm NZST Friday 4 July
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO (open-air — day high 34°C easing to 24°C overnight, gusts to 20 mph, 20% late thunderstorm chance)
Odds (as of 3 July): Colombia 1.47 / Draw 4.60 / Ghana 9.20
Colombia were the best team nobody talked about in the group stage: Group K winners with 7 points, only one goal conceded, including a 0–0 draw with Portugal. They averaged 59.8% possession and 59 shots across the group. Opta gives them a 64.8% win probability. Daniel Muñoz, the right-back, is their top scorer with two — which tells you how well the goals are spread.
Ghana came through as one of the best third-placed teams from Group L (1–0 Panama, 0–0 England, 1–2 Croatia on 4 points). Antoine Semenyo, their key attacking threat, is expected to be available after an ankle concern. This is a side that can defend — the England clean sheet proved that — but one that will struggle to create against Colombia’s press.
My pick: Colombia to win in 90 minutes. I rate this 8/10 on confidence. The 1.47 price is not spectacular, but it is honest. Colombia’s control game is tailor-made for a knockout tie against a defensively solid but offensively limited Ghana. The winner gets Switzerland in M96, which is a very winnable quarter of the bracket. If you are building an accumulator for the Round of 16, Colombia to advance is the banker leg.
- Egypt to advance (7/10) — Salah changes the game, Australia’s attack has dried up, and the 2.50 price for a 90-minute win is fair.
- Argentina to win, over 2.5 goals (9/10) — the quality gap is enormous; value is in the goals line, not the match result.
- Colombia to win (8/10) — the most controlled team in the group stage, playing a side that lacks the attacking tools to break them down.
- All three fixtures are played today (3 July ET) — NZ kickoffs run from 6:00 am to 1:30 pm NZST on Friday 4 July.
Accumulator Read
If you are putting together a multi-leg for today, the obvious treble is Argentina win + Colombia win + Egypt to advance. At the 90-minute prices (1.18 × 1.47 × 2.50) that is roughly 4.34 combined — a $20 stake returning about $87. The weak link is the Egypt leg, which is why I prefer the to-advance market there if your book offers it.
NZ-facing books like Boomerang Bet and ZotaBet should have all three fixtures priced in NZD by now. Shop the to-advance markets where they are available — in a knockout format, the 90-minute draw is live (2.90 for the Egypt match alone), and you do not want to lose a treble because a tie went to penalties.
For background on today’s sides, see the Australia and Egypt breakdowns, my Argentina team page, and the Morocco page for the Swiss-bracket context. The tournament odds page has the latest outright prices.
